← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 42% | 50% | 2.25 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Cremonese win | 27% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese |
| 54' | ⚽ | Youssef Maleh · Cremonese |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jacob Ondrejka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jari Vandeputte · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lautaro Valenti · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mariano Troilo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Payero · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| coach days |
| 263.00 |
| 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1623.25 | 1552.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.00 | -35.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.40 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 34.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 4.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.47 | — |
| state index | 0.12 | -1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 2.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.08 |