← Serie A 2025-26 · Fri, Mar 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Collu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 44% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Colombo · Genoa CFC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Hassane Kamara · Udinese Calcio |
| 56' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · Udinese Calcio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Keinan Davis · Udinese Calcio |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lennon Miller · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oumar Solet · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Keinan Davis · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 262.00 |
| 657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1672.30 | 1632.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.79 | 1.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 33.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 5.34 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.81 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 29.48 |
| state index | 0.95 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.81 |