← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa win | 37% | 41% | 2.55 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 56% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 44% | 2.63 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Stefano Moreo · Pisa |
| 37' | 🟥 | Rafiu Durosinmi · Pisa |
| 47' | 🟨 | Zé Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 52' | ⚽ | Antonio Caracciolo · Pisa |
| 54' | ⚽ | Antonio Caracciolo · Pisa |
| 59' | 🟨 | Adam Obert · Cagliari Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Michel Aebischer · Pisa |
| 67' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alberto Dossena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Adam Obert · Cagliari Calcio |
| 81' | 🟥 | Adam Obert |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pisa | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 226.00 |
| 622.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1526.09 | 1602.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.48 | -27.23 |
| eye test v1 | -1.27 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 15.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | -1.19 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |