← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 15, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 40% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hellas Verona FC +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Genoa CFC +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 66% | 58% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |