← Serie A 2025-26 · Fri, Mar 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 42% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Torino FC −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Torino FC |
| 20' | ⚽ | Mateo Pellegrino · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Emirhan İlkhan · Torino FC |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Mandela Keita · Torino FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Christian Ordoñez · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Gabriel Strefezza · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sandro Kulenović · Torino FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico di Torino |
| coach days |
| 224.00 |
| 255.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1629.30 | 1638.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.41 | 38.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.80 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 27.47 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.77 |