← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 41% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Cremonese win | 27% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| US Lecce −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Cremonese |
| 22' | ⚽ | Santiago Pierotti · US Lecce |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Nikola Štulić · US Lecce |
| 44' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamil Siebert · US Lecce |
| 47' | ⚽ | Federico Bonazzoli · Cremonese |
| 53' | 🟨 | Milan Đurić · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Folino · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Luperto · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 27 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Via del Mare |
| coach days |
| 250.00 |
| 219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1565.29 | 1577.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.07 | -19.35 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.09 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.86 |