β Serie A 2025-26 Β· Sat, Mar 7, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 55% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio β0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Atalanta BC β0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 47% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | π¨ | Branimir MlaΔiΔ Β· Udinese Calcio |
| 40' | β½ | Thomas Kristensen Β· Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | π¨ | Marten de Roon Β· Atalanta BC |
| 55' | β½ | Keinan Davis Β· Udinese Calcio |
| 66' | π¨ | Maduka Okoye Β· Udinese Calcio |
| 75' | β½ | Gianluca Scamacca Β· Atalanta BC |
| 79' | β½ | Gianluca Scamacca Β· Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | New Balance Arena |
| coach days |
| 218.00 |
| 644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1833.88 | 1631.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.98 | 4.76 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.72 |
| league points | 45.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 4.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | -0.60 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 29.48 |
| state index | 0.99 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 0.82 |