← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 63% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 +1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Cagliari Calcio +1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +7% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Martin Baturina · Como 1907 |
| 56' | ⚽ | Sebastiano Esposito · Cagliari Calcio |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marco Palestra · Cagliari Calcio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Esposito · Cagliari Calcio |
| 76' | ⚽ | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jacobo Ramón · Como 1907 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alberto Dossena · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days |
| 614.00 |
| 614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1608.58 | 1794.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.20 | 15.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 1.89 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 2.38 |