← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Mar 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 40% | 43% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 29% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| ACF Fiorentina +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Christian Kabasele · Udinese Calcio |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 32' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 61' | 🟨 | Daniele Rugani · ACF Fiorentina |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Keinan Davis · Udinese Calcio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adam Buksa · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 639.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1614.20 | 1678.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 32.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.58 | 28.53 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.74 |