← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 57% | 70% | 1.67 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 17% | 10% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli +0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Hellas Verona FC +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 47% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 53% | 2.50 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Antonio Vergara · SSC Napoli |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Hellas Verona FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Eljif Elmas · SSC Napoli |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Abdou Harroui · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romelu Lukaku · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 211.00 |
| 637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1509.33 | 1827.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.03 | -10.95 |
| eye test v1 | -1.44 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.89 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.97 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.84 | 27.81 |
| state index | -1.39 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.37 |