← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Como 1907 win | 65% | 69% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 12% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| US Lecce −1.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Como 1907 −1.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |