← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Feb 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 60% | 59% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Pisa win | 17% | 18% | 5.75 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pisa −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| ACF Fiorentina −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 54% | 1.91 | value: +4% |
| Under | 50% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |