← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 42% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 59% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |