← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: J. L. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 43% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 27% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Giorgio Scalvini · Atalanta BC |
| 12' | 🟨 | Honest Ahanor · Atalanta BC |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Éderson · Atalanta BC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Nicola Zalewski · Atalanta BC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Bernasconi · Atalanta BC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kenneth Taylor · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Berat Djimsiti · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 593.00 | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1747.59 | 1819.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.57 | -21.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.90 |
| league points | 33.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 5.89 | 4.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 27.66 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.93 |