← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 56% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 19% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| ACF Fiorentina −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Nicolò Fagioli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Como 1907 |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Fabiano Parisi · Como 1907 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jesús Rodriguez · Como 1907 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Como 1907 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 89' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Como 1907 |
| 89' | 🟥 | Álvaro Morata · Como 1907 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |
| coach days | 593.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1778.96 | 1664.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.50 | -3.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.51 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| league points | 41.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 6.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.26 | 0.89 |
| solidity v1 | 1.30 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.52 |
| state index | 1.16 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.26 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.59 | 1.68 |