← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Feb 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 64% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 13% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Cagliari Calcio −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Alberto Dossena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 25' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · AS Roma |
| 40' | 🟨 | Marco Palestra · Cagliari Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gianluca Gaetano · Cagliari Calcio |
| 65' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · AS Roma |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bryan Zaragoza · AS Roma |
| 89' | 🟨 | Riyad Idrissi · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 223.00 |
| 588.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1852.96 | 1629.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.44 | 29.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| league points | 43.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.46 | — |
| state index | 1.12 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.24 |