← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 8, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 64% | 70% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 15% | 11% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| FC Internazionale Milano +1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |