← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: G. Collu
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 58% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 17% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |