← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 55% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 19% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Torino FC −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Cesare Casadei · Torino FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro · Torino FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Dodô · ACF Fiorentina |
| 51' | ⚽ | Manor Solomon · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 64' | 🟨 | Guillermo Maripán · Torino FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Luca Marianucci · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pietro Comuzzo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zakaria Aboukhlal · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gvidas Gineitis · Torino FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| ⚽ |
| Guillermo Maripán · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 221.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1709.51 | 1680.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.70 | -33.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.11 | 6.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | -0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -0.86 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 2.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.93 |