← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 45% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 23% | 21% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC +0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| SSC Napoli +0.5 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 37% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Alex Meret · SSC Napoli |
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Genoa CFC |
| 20' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · SSC Napoli |
| 22' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · SSC Napoli |
| 50' | 🟨 | Johan Vásquez · Genoa CFC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Colombo · Genoa CFC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · SSC Napoli |
| 76' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · SSC Napoli |
| 76' | 🟥 | Juan Jesus · SSC Napoli |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alessandro Marcandalli · Genoa CFC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| 🟨 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Rasmus Højlund · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 221.00 | 616.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1641.95 | 1831.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.26 | -25.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| league points | 23.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.89 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.22 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.04 |