← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Feb 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. L. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 49% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 22% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| AS Roma +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 41% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Evan Ndicka · AS Roma |
| 17' | 🟨 | Keinan Davis · Udinese Calcio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Thomas Kristensen · Udinese Calcio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Udinese Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Neil El Aynaoui · AS Roma |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jordan Zemura · Udinese Calcio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 69' | 🟨 | Lennon Miller · Udinese Calcio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gueye · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli |
| coach days |
| 611.00 |
| 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1627.17 | 1867.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.58 | 16.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| league points | 29.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.87 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.58 | 28.20 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.90 |