← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 68% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 11% | 15% | 8.50 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 +1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Juventus FC +1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 43% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 57% | 2.00 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · Juventus FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · Juventus FC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Weston McKennie · Juventus FC |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Andrea Cambiaso · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jonathan David · Juventus FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alessandro Circati · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 215.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 5.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1608.72 | 1865.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.25 | 15.84 |
| eye test v1 | -1.47 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.83 |
| league points | 23.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 1.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | 1.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.20 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 2.03 |