β Serie A 2025-26 Β· Sun, Feb 1, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Pairetto
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Como 1907 win | 41% | 38% | 2.35 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Atalanta BC β0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Como 1907 β0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |