← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Arena
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 40% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Pisa win | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Kristian Thorstvedt · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 25' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ismael Koné · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Antonio Caracciolo · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 51' | ⚽ | Michel Aebischer · Pisa |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ismael Koné · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rosen Bozhinov · Pisa |
| 64' | 🟨 | Matteo Tramoni · Pisa |
| 75' | 🟨 | Idrissa Touré · Pisa |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luca Moro · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pisa | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani |
| coach days | 183.00 | 609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1556.59 | 1639.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.22 | -15.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.83 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.75 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -1.73 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.91 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.76 |