← Serie A 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 30, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Zufferli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 42% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 38% | 2.90 | value: +10% |
| Genoa CFC win | 26% | 19% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 60% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 40% | 2.75 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 62' | ⚽ | Kenneth Taylor · SS Lazio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Genoa CFC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ivan Provedel · SS Lazio |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Genoa CFC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Leo Østigard · Genoa CFC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 75' | ⚽ | Vitinha · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 578.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1736.61 | 1647.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.88 | 29.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 29.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.07 | — |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.90 |