← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Juventus FC win | 50% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| SSC Napoli win | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Juventus FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| SSC Napoli −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand