← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 39% | 35% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Lewis Ferguson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Sebastian Otoa · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 56' | 🟥 | Łukasz Skorupski · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Genoa CFC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Genoa CFC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Federico Ravaglia · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Caleb Ekuban · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessandro Marcandalli · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Junior Messias · Genoa CFC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 208.00 | 603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 4.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1636.48 | 1746.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.61 | -23.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.39 |