← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 53% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Semih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari Calcio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Marco Palestra · Cagliari Calcio |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 63' | 🟨 | Elia Caprile · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | ⚽ | Marco Brescianini · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Zé Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pietro Comuzzo · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 207.00 | 572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1727.75 | 1645.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.95 | 12.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 6.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.07 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.74 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.86 |