← Serie A 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 76% | 83% | 1.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.00 | fair |
| Pisa win | 9% | 6% | 11.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa −1.75 | 53% | 1.78 |
| FC Internazionale Milano −1.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 69% | 1.53 | value: +6% |
| Under | 38% | 31% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Stefano Moreo · Pisa |
| 15' | 🟨 | Marius Marin · Pisa |
| 23' | ⚽ | Stefano Moreo · Pisa |
| 26' | 🟨 | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Piotr Zieliński · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 41' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 45' | ⚽ | Francesco Pio Esposito · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 56' | 🟨 | Arturo Calabresi · Pisa |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro · Pisa |
| 82' | ⚽ | Federico Dimarco · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 34 | Shots | 8 |
| 14 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ange-Yoan Bonny · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 90' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 236.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1938.64 | 1559.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.74 | -5.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 1.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| league points | 49.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 2.99 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | -1.08 |
| solidity v1 | 1.31 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.11 | — |
| state index | 1.11 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.10 |