← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Draw | 36% | 33% | 2.63 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 32% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 32% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Genoa CFC +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 40% | 2.63 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |