← Serie A 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 44% | 48% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 25% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hellas Verona FC +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Hellas Verona FC |
| 13' | ⚽ | Gift Orban · Hellas Verona FC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jens Odgaard · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Martin Vitík · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 44' | ⚽ | Santiago Castro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Remo Freuler · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 167.00 | 593.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1554.16 | 1757.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.25 | -35.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.85 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 4.02 | 5.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.32 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.84 | 27.72 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.91 |