← Serie A 2025-26 · Mon, Jan 12, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.98 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 24% | 25% | 4.21 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 48% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 66% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Colombo · Genoa CFC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Juan Rodríguez · Cagliari Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Morten Frendrup · Genoa CFC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Adam Obert · Cagliari Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Patrizio Masini · Genoa CFC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Michel Adopo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Luperto · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | ⚽ | Morten Frendrup · Genoa CFC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Leo Østigard · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 195.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1664.08 | 1644.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.92 | 3.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.91 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 24.73 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.98 |