β Serie A 2025-26 Β· Sun, Jan 11, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: Livio Marinelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 34% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +5% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 33% | 30% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.94 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 37% | 2.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | β½ | Nikola Ε tuliΔ Β· US Lecce |
| 23' | π¨ | Santiago Pierotti Β· US Lecce |
| 55' | π¨ | Ylber Ramadani Β· US Lecce |
| 57' | π₯ | Lameck Banda Β· US Lecce |
| 62' | π¨ | Mohamed Kaba Β· US Lecce |
| 64' | β½ (og) | Tiago Gabriel Β· Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 69' | π¨ | Enrico Del Prato Β· Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 72' | β½ | Mateo Pellegrino Β· Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | π₯ | Kialonda Gaspar Β· US Lecce |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Via del Mare |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 194.00 | 194.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1559.51 | 1598.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.29 | 13.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | β |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 4.77 | 3.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | β | 27.47 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.95 |