← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 48% | 47% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 22% | 23% | 4.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Como 1907 −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Nico Paz · Como 1907 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
| 49' | ⚽ | Nicolò Cambiaghi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ignace Van der Brempt · Como 1907 |
| 61' | 🟥 | Nicolò Cambiaghi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nadir Zortea · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lewis Ferguson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Martin Baturina · Como 1907 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 3 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |
| coach days | 558.00 | 588.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1763.46 | 1755.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.93 | -27.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.10 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.75 |
| league points | 33.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 2.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.72 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.12 |