← Serie A 2025-26 · Wed, Jan 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Simone Sozza, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 41% | 33% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.12 | value: +7% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 28% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 64% | 1.63 | value: +5% |
| Over | 41% | 36% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 21' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · ACF Fiorentina |
| 26' | 🟨 | Matteo Cancellieri · SS Lazio |
| 52' | ⚽ | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 56' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · ACF Fiorentina |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nicolò Fagioli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Pedro · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 555.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1759.35 | 1664.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.57 | -15.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.90 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| league points | 24.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 3.34 | 3.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 1.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 30.38 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.76 |