β Serie A 2025-26 Β· Sun, Jan 4, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.09 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 25% | 29% | 4.01 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | β½ | Leonardo Spinazzola Β· SSC Napoli |
| 32' | β½ | Amir Rrahmani Β· SSC Napoli |
| 43' | π¨ | Mattia Zaccagni Β· SS Lazio |
| 64' | π¨ | Danilo Cataldi Β· SS Lazio |
| 69' | π¨ | Tijjani Noslin Β· SS Lazio |
| 69' | π¨ | Amir Rrahmani Β· SSC Napoli |
| 81' | π¨ | Tijjani Noslin Β· SS Lazio |
| 81' | π₯ | Tijjani Noslin Β· SS Lazio |
| 82' | π¨ | Alessio Romagnoli Β· SS Lazio |
| 87' | π₯ | Adam MaruΕ‘iΔ Β· SS Lazio |
| 87' | π₯ | Pasquale Mazzocchi Β· |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 552.00 |
| 582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1773.49 | 1853.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.11 | -0.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | β |
| league points | 24.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.59 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 29.68 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.39 |