← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 28, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 48% | 58% | 2.01 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 22% | 18% | 4.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.17 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |