← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Colombo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 38% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.98 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 55% | 1.45 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 45% | 2.85 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · Udinese Calcio |
| 14' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Matteo Cancellieri · SS Lazio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Christian Kabasele · Udinese Calcio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jesper Karlström · Udinese Calcio |
| 80' | ⚽ (og) | Oumar Solet · SS Lazio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Keinan Davis · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli |
| coach days | 574.00 | 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1607.55 | 1776.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.77 | -1.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.90 |
| league points | 21.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.58 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.58 | 28.07 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.11 |