← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marchetti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 20% | 19% | 5.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| US Lecce +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Nico Paz · Como 1907 |
| 22' | 🟨 | Riccardo Sottil · US Lecce |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ivan Smolčić · Como 1907 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jean Butez · Como 1907 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Como 1907 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jacobo Ramón · Como 1907 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Maximo Perrone · Como 1907 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Anastasios Douvikas · Como 1907 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Via del Mare |
| coach days | 179.00 | 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1612.94 | 1769.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.07 | 12.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 43.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| league points | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 14.76 | 11.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 1.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 24.75 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.45 |