← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 45% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 25% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.25 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 41% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟥 | Maduka Okoye · Udinese Calcio |
| 21' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alessandro Zanoli · Udinese Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 42' | ⚽ | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cher Ndour · ACF Fiorentina |
| 56' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 65' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 66' | ⚽ | Oumar Solet · Udinese Calcio |
| 69' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 85' |
| 🟨 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 173.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1653.43 | 1621.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.33 | 4.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.00 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 30.38 | 30.20 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.35 |