← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Francesco Fourneau, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.22 | fair |
| Pisa win | 22% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Matteo Tramoni · Pisa |
| 52' | 🟨 | Michel Adopo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 59' | ⚽ | Michael Folorunsho · Cagliari Calcio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Giovanni Bonfanti · Pisa |
| 71' | ⚽ | Semih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari Calcio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Esposito · Cagliari Calcio |
| 89' | ⚽ | Stefano Moreo · Pisa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arturo Calabresi · Pisa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days | 538.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1593.87 | 1561.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.27 | -11.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.66 | 8.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.18 |