← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Simone Sozza, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 47% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.18 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 21% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Juventus FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.71 | value: +4% |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Matías Soulé · AS Roma |
| 24' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · Juventus FC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Francisco Conceição · Juventus FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Manu Koné · AS Roma |
| 70' | ⚽ | Loïs Openda · Juventus FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Tommaso Baldanzi · AS Roma |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 86' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 110.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1875.71 | 1898.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.84 | -1.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.86 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 1.03 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 26.17 |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.87 |