← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 62% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.02 | fair |
| Cremonese win | 14% | 15% | 7.02 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Cremonese −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Cremonese |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · SS Lazio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mario Gila Fuentes · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Federico Ceccherini · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 537.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1782.04 | 1626.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.71 | 9.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.80 |
| league points | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.07 | — |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.35 |