← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Colombo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 48% | 54% | 2.03 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 22% | 18% | 4.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| ACF Fiorentina −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 53% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 47% | 2.46 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Cheikh Niasse · Hellas Verona FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Martin Frese · Hellas Verona FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mutassim Al-Musrati · Hellas Verona FC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Gift Orban · Hellas Verona FC |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Unai Núñez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rafik Belghali · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gift Orban · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 166.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1723.02 | 1602.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.56 | 6.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 7.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -1.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.20 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 0.99 |