← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marchetti, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SS Lazio win | 46% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |