β Serie A 2025-26 Β· Fri, Dec 12, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| US Lecce win | 38% | 41% | 2.61 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 34% | 28% | 2.86 | fair |
| Pisa win | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pisa β0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| US Lecce β0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 68% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand