← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 41% | 38% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 27% | 30% | 3.53 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +5% |
| Over | 47% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Nuno Tavares · SS Lazio |
| 31' | 🟨 | Nikola Moro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 38' | ⚽ | Gustav Isaksen · SS Lazio |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jens Odgaard · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nicolò Cambiaghi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mario Gila Fuentes · SS Lazio |
| 78' | 🟥 | Mario Gila Fuentes · SS Lazio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Juan Miranda · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 524.00 | 554.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1776.92 | 1781.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.43 | 5.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.40 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.63 |
| league points | 18.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.89 | 5.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.85 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 2.14 |