← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 35% | 33% | 2.80 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 34% | 39% | 2.86 | value: +13% |
| SSC Napoli win | 31% | 27% | 3.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SSC Napoli +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | David Neres · SSC Napoli |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 62' | 🟨 | Stanislav Lobotka · SSC Napoli |
| 64' | 🟨 | Sam Beukema · SSC Napoli |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tommaso Baldanzi · AS Roma |
| 86' | 🟨 | Evan Ndicka · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 152.00 | 547.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1904.55 | 1903.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.92 | -10.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 4.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.70 | 28.57 |
| state index | 1.38 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.58 |