← Serie A 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 36% | 41% | 2.71 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.89 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 31% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| US Lecce +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 37% | 2.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Lassana Coulibaly · US Lecce |
| 22' | ⚽ | Lameck Banda · US Lecce |
| 57' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Torino FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Cesare Casadei · Torino FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · US Lecce |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · US Lecce |
| 83' | 🟨 | Saúl Coco · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cyril Ngonge · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Via del Mare |
| coach days | 152.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1561.56 | 1664.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.60 | -8.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.77 | 5.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.94 |