← Serie A 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Valerio Crezzini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 78% | 79% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.52 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 7% | 6% | 13.91 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Cagliari Calcio −1.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 54% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 46% | 2.39 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Sebastiano Esposito · Cagliari Calcio |
| 27' | ⚽ | Kenan Yıldız · Juventus FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Adam Obert · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kenan Yıldız · Juventus FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Michael Folorunsho · Cagliari Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mattia Felici · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matteo Prati · Cagliari Calcio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Andrea Cambiaso · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1819.64 | 1584.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.16 | -11.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.88 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.32 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 1.45 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.41 | — |
| state index | 1.00 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 0.84 |